El prometedor cierre alcista de Wall Street en 2023 ratifica las buenas perspectivas de la economía de Estados Unidos en España.

Anticipating a more flexible monetary policy in 2024, the US stock market closed slightly down in the last session of the year, which does not overshadow the remarkable bullish momentum seen in the past months, driving the three major indices to monthly, quarterly, and annual gains. During 2023, all three have recorded double-digit growth.
Analysts see reasons for optimism heading into 2024. The smooth landing of the US economy, with tame inflation, resilient consumer spending, and a strong job market, has invigorated operations, notably in the S&P, which has gained over 20% this year.
At the close of the markets this Friday, the bulls of the S&P 500 achieved the longest weekly gain since January 2004. Although the broader US stock market index closed today with a 0.28% decline, just shy of 30 points from a record close, it has gained 24% this year, with a final record finish. This year has been much kinder to the market than the previous one: the benchmark index dropped around 20% in 2022.
Like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq have also recorded nine consecutive weekly gains, the longest streak since early 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit multiple all-time highs in December, including records in each of the last five trading sessions. It declined 0.05% this Friday and closed at 37,689. In 2023, it has achieved gains of 14%.
Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, the group known as the 7 Magnificents, dominated the S&P 500 and surged over 100% in 2023. Nvidia gained 246%, Meta gained 184%, and Tesla, despite some technical issues, skyrocketed by 130%. Each of these stocks had plunged over 50% in 2022.
On the negative side, and to the delight of the euro or the yen, among other currencies, the US dollar is on track for its worst year since 2020. The US dollar index, a measure of the performance of the world reserve currency against six other currencies, has fallen more than 2% throughout the year. The greenback has been weakened by the prospect of interest rate cuts next year.
Regarding US Treasury bonds, after reaching nearly 5%, the yield on the 10-year bond ended 2023 below 4%. Longer-term US Treasury bond yields retreated starting in November and closed near the levels seen this summer.
Despite the optimism with which analysts and investors approach 2024, there are potential dark clouds on the horizon. Geopolitical tensions (the war in Ukraine and the risk of disruption to maritime traffic in the Red Sea due to Gaza) and tensions with China (and the direction of its economy, especially the real estate market) keep Wall Street on the watch, although the resilience of the US economy helps. A year ago, inflation was around 6.5%. Today, that rate has more than halved and stands at 3.1%. Consumer spending continues at a good pace, while unemployment remains below 3.7%, and from the banking crisis in the spring, with the bankruptcy of several regional banks, only the memory remains. No one dares to sing victory, but the results of the stock market demonstrate that the specter of recession, which hovered over the US economy for months, seems to have been averted.

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